The Assassination of Qasem Soleimani (2020)

On January 3, 2020, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East was profoundly shaken by the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, a revered military commander in Iran. As the head of the Quds Force, an elite unit within Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Soleimani was a pivotal figure in Iran's foreign policy, especially in the sphere of its regional military and paramilitary operations. His death, caused by a targeted U.S. drone strike near Baghdad International Airport, sparked intense international debate, raised questions about the legality of the action, and exacerbated tensions between the United States and Iran. This article delves into Soleimani’s life, his role in shaping Iran’s regional influence, the context of the assassination, and its profound implications on international relations.

Qasem Soleimani: The Man Behind the Mission

Born in 1957 in a rural area of Iran, Qasem Soleimani rose through the ranks of Iran's military establishment following the 1979 Islamic Revolution. He joined the IRGC, which was established to safeguard the principles of the revolution and Iran’s sovereignty. Over the years, Soleimani's tactical brilliance and loyalty to the regime earned him promotions and recognition. By the late 1990s, he had become the commander of the Quds Force, the IRGC’s unit responsible for foreign operations.

Soleimani's military career was defined by his involvement in shaping Iran’s influence across the Middle East. He played a crucial role in organizing and supporting proxy militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, furthering Iran's geopolitical ambitions. His reputation was not limited to military operations; he was also deeply involved in Iran's diplomatic and political strategies. Often regarded as Iran's second most powerful figure after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Soleimani was a national hero to many Iranians but seen as a dangerous and destabilizing figure by the U.S. and its allies.

Influence in Iraq and the Fight Against ISIS

Soleimani’s role in Iraq became especially prominent following the U.S. invasion in 2003. As the U.S. toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime, a power vacuum emerged, leading to sectarian conflict. Soleimani leveraged this situation to expand Iran’s influence in Iraq, primarily through support for Shiite militias. These militias, often operating under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), were instrumental in countering the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq.

Despite his role in the fight against ISIS, Soleimani’s activities in Iraq were a major concern for the U.S. government. His involvement in supporting militias that targeted U.S. personnel made him a controversial figure in Washington. By 2020, tensions between the U.S. and Iranian-backed forces had reached a breaking point, setting the stage for the strike that would kill Soleimani.

The Lead-Up to the Assassination

The assassination of Qasem Soleimani was not an isolated incident but the culmination of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Several key events in the months leading up to the strike heightened these tensions.

Ø  Withdrawal from the JCPOA (Iran Nuclear Deal).  In 2018, President Donald Trump announced the U.S.'s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. This decision reintroduced crippling sanctions on Iran, further straining relations between the two countries. Iran responded by gradually reducing its compliance with the deal's terms, reigniting fears of its nuclear ambitions.

Ø  Increased Attacks on U.S. Interests.  Throughout 2019, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq increased their attacks on U.S. bases and personnel. Notably, in December 2019, an attack by the Kata'ib Hezbollah militia on a U.S. military base in Kirkuk resulted in the death of an American contractor. In retaliation, the U.S. conducted airstrikes on Kata'ib Hezbollah positions in Iraq and Syria, killing several militia members.

Ø  The Storming of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad.   The situation reached a tipping point when, in late December 2019, Iranian-backed militia supporters stormed the U.S. embassy compound in Baghdad. Although no American personnel were harmed, the images of protesters breaching the compound's outer walls resonated in Washington, drawing comparisons to the 1979 hostage crisis in Tehran. This attack was seen as a direct affront to American sovereignty, with U.S. officials blaming Soleimani for orchestrating the protest.

The Assassination: Details of the Strike

On the evening of January 2, 2020, Qasem Soleimani arrived at Baghdad International Airport, having flown in from Damascus. Accompanied by senior Iraqi military leaders, including Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, Soleimani's convoy was targeted by a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone strike shortly after leaving the airport.

The strike was carried out under the direct orders of President Donald Trump, who later described the decision as one made to prevent an "imminent threat" to American personnel in the region. The Pentagon claimed that Soleimani was plotting attacks against U.S. diplomats and military personnel. The precision strike resulted in the immediate death of Soleimani, al-Muhandis, and several others in the convoy.

Legal and Ethical Debates

The assassination of Soleimani was unprecedented, marking one of the most significant uses of targeted killing by the United States against a high-ranking military official of another sovereign nation. This action sparked heated debates over its legality and the potential consequences.

Ø  Justification of "Imminent Threat".   The U.S. administration justified the strike by claiming that Soleimani was planning imminent attacks against U.S. interests. However, critics argued that the administration provided little concrete evidence to support this claim. International law allows for the use of force in self-defense, but the concept of "imminence" was hotly debated. Some experts contended that the strike violated international law, particularly the sovereignty of Iraq, where the attack occurred.

Ø  Impact on U.S.-Iran Relations.   The killing of Soleimani was viewed by Iran as a direct act of war. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed severe retaliation, and the Iranian public, many of whom saw Soleimani as a national hero, mourned his death. Protests erupted across Iran, and the country’s parliament passed a resolution designating U.S. military forces as terrorists, further intensifying hostilities.

Aftermath and Consequences

The aftermath of Soleimani's assassination set off a series of events that had far-reaching implications for the Middle East and global politics.

Ø  Iran’s Retaliation: Operation Martyr Soleimani

On January 8, 2020, in a retaliatory move, Iran launched Operation Martyr Soleimani, firing over a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S. military bases in Iraq—Ain al-Asad airbase and a base near Erbil. While there were no American fatalities, more than 100 U.S. soldiers were later diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries as a result of the blasts. The attack demonstrated Iran’s capacity to directly target U.S. forces, though it was careful not to cause mass casualties, likely to avoid further escalation.

Ø  The Downing of Ukrainian Flight PS752

In the chaotic hours following the missile attacks, a tragic incident occurred. Ukrainian International Airlines Flight PS752 was mistakenly shot down by an Iranian missile shortly after takeoff from Tehran. All 176 passengers and crew on board were killed. The Iranian government initially denied responsibility, but later admitted that its air defenses had mistaken the passenger jet for a hostile target. This incident led to widespread protests within Iran, with citizens expressing outrage at the government’s handling of the situation.

Ø  Escalation of Proxy Conflicts

Soleimani's death also had a ripple effect on Iran’s network of proxy forces across the region. His replacement, Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, faced the challenge of maintaining cohesion and morale among these groups. In Iraq, anti-U.S. sentiment intensified, and Iranian-backed militias vowed to expel American forces from the country. The Iraqi parliament passed a non-binding resolution calling for the withdrawal of U.S. troops, although this did not immediately lead to their removal.

In Lebanon and Syria, where Soleimani had played a central role in coordinating Iranian-backed militias like Hezbollah, his absence created a leadership vacuum. While the Quds Force remained operational, the loss of Soleimani’s personal charisma and influence was deeply felt.

Ø  Diplomatic and Military Implications for the U.S.

The assassination of Soleimani had immediate diplomatic repercussions for the U.S. as well. Relations with Iraq were strained, with many Iraqi leaders viewing the strike as a violation of their sovereignty. Calls for the expulsion of U.S. troops from Iraq grew louder, and U.S. diplomats faced an increasingly hostile environment.

Internationally, the strike drew mixed reactions. Some American allies, particularly in the Gulf, supported the move, viewing it as a necessary step to counter Iran’s growing influence. However, European nations expressed concern over the escalation of violence and the potential for a broader conflict. The United Nations also expressed reservations about the legality of the strike, highlighting the potential dangers of targeted assassinations as a tool of foreign policy.

Ø  Long-Term Consequences

More than three years after the assassination, its effects continue to reverberate across the Middle East. Soleimani’s death altered the dynamics of the region’s proxy wars, and the U.S.-Iran relationship remains fraught with tension. The possibility of a direct conflict between the two nations, while not realized immediately after the assassination, remains an underlying concern for policymakers.

U.S. Policy Toward Iran

The Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign, which included sanctions and military actions, failed to achieve its stated goal of forcing Iran to negotiate a more stringent nuclear deal. Instead, Iran expanded its nuclear program in response to the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA and continued to build relationships with non-state actors across the region. President Joe Biden’s administration initially sought to return to the JCPOA, but negotiations have stalled, and the future of U.S.-Iran relations remains uncertain.

Ø  Shifts in Iran’s Foreign Policy

While Esmail Qaani succeeded Soleimani as the commander of the Quds Force, he lacked the same level of influence and regional connections. Iran’s strategy in the region has become more decentralized, relying on local commanders and militias to carry out its objectives. However, Iran has continued to support groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, indicating that its regional ambitions remain unchanged.

Conclusion

The assassination of Qasem Soleimani marked a turning point in U.S.-Iran relations and had significant implications for the broader Middle East. While the U.S. justified the strike as a preemptive measure to protect its personnel, the action raised important questions about the use of targeted killings in international law. Soleimani's death exacerbated existing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, leading to retaliatory strikes, tragic accidents like the downing of Flight PS752, and increased instability in Iraq. As the region continues to grapple with the aftermath of the assassination, the long-term consequences of this pivotal moment in modern history are still unfolding.